Applied Climatology
EES1131 Assignemnt#1: Applied Climatology
Assigned: September 21, 2021
Due: October 5, 2021
Late assignments will be penalized by 10% per 24 hours.
The average annual temperature, in Ontario, has increased by 1.4°C over the last 60 years, and
models suggest that by 2050 the average annual temperature could increase by an additional 2.5°C
to 3.7°C (from baseline average 1961-1990) (MOECC, 2011). It is, therefore, likely that climate
change will have profound impact on the agricultural system in Ontario. Research has shown that
the growing season has been getting longer and warmer over most areas of agricultural land in
Canada. Ontario is home to commercial hog, dairy and beef cattle farms, cash crops such as
soybeans and corn, vegetables and fruit. Warmer temperatures and a longer growing season
could benefit many crops including corn, soybeans, forages and horticultural crops, but
climate change could pose significant risks including changes in drought frequency and
severity, shifts in the timing of precipitation and changes in storm intensity present risks to
production. In addition, climate change could negatively affect farm production and profitability
through changes in agricultural pests, invasive species, weeds and diseases. For the agricultural
sector, in addition to adopting appropriate farming methods/crops, economic initiatives could be
considered to limit the financial risks that these weather conditions may produce.
Problem: Considering the above, develop an agro-climatology for agricultural production in
Ontario for your assigned crop using the climatological data set. Identify the major factors that
could affect production of your crop in a changing climate including the climate change itself.
You should pay attention to the following:
1. Understand the current state of knowledge about the production of your assigned crop in Ontario by doing a literature review (try to find and read at least 5 articles/reports).
2. The next step is to figure out the Growing Degree Days (GDD) for production of your crop in your assigned location, which can be directly linked to the climate change.
The GDD equation is calculated as follows:
𝐷𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦𝐺𝐷𝐷 = 𝑇𝑚𝑎𝑥 + 𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛
2 − 𝑇𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒
Tmax = the daily maximum air temperature
Tmin = the daily minimum air temperature
Tbase = the GDD base temperature for the organism being monitored
3. Examine your climatological data set (download it from Environment and Climate Change Canada) and calculate the GDD for production of your crop.
4. Under a changing climate identify and explain the factors that will affect production of your crop in a significant way by including the important physical, societal, and
economic issues tied to the agro-climatology of your crop. (hint: literature review and
linking your findings with the literature is the key to answer this question)
5. Do not forget to look for solution to the problem and suggest some.
Finally, use your background knowledge to look into the problem from a holistic
perspective, and do not hesitate to ask questions, which will lead you to solve the problem
in a more effective way.
Additional instructions:
– 10 pages maximum but could be less (including Tables and Graphs)
– Name, student number, course code on title page
– Page numbers (preferably at the bottom of page)
– Double spaced; standard 1” margins
– 12 pt (Times New Roman, Garamond) OR 10 pt (Arial) font
References:
Environment Canada. (2014) Climate Station Database.
http://climate.weather.gc.ca/index_e.html#access
Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food. (2013). Historical Provincial Estimates by Crop,
1981-2012. Accessed from:
http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/stats/crops/estimate_hist_metric.htm
Ontario Ministry of the Environment. (2011). Climate Ready: Ontario’s Adaptation Strategy and
Action Plan. Accessed from:
http://www.ene.gov.on.ca/stdprodconsume/groups/lr/@ene/@resources/documents/resource/stdp
rod_085423.pdf