Mihaylo College of Business & Economics

Mihaylo College of Business & Economics

Grading Rubric

Assignment: Analytics Project Report for ISDS 361A

Total Points: 25 (5 points maximum for each criterion)

Criteria Poor (0 – 2) Average (2 – 4) Excellent (4 – 5)

Introduction & Background: a) Purpose, business problem description; b) Description of variables and outline of the

statistical methods to be applied (descriptive statistics for Phase 1 and inferential methods for Phase 2)

a) Purpose unclear and the problem description vague; b) Description of variables and statistical methods incorrect or vague (as relevant to each Phase)

a) Purpose included but the problem description lacks clarity; b) Outline of variables and statistical methods adequate (1 error at most) but can be improved

a) Problem well-defined and covers the scope; b) Variable descriptions and statistical methods accurately and clearly outlined

Methodology: Application of the appropriate statistical methods and analyses (as relevant to each Phase)

Incorrect statistical method used and incorrect analysis (Does not meet)

Correct method used but some errors in intermediate steps of the analyses and calculations

Correct method used, correct steps followed, and correct final answers (meets expectations)

Decision-making: Interpretation of the results, conclusions, and final decision-making in the context of the business problem

Conclusion is incorrect and interpretation is incorrect or missing (does not meet)

Correct interpretation of results but the conclusions are not communicated properly in the business context (meets but can be improved)

Correct interpretation of results and conclusions in the context of the business problem (meets expectations completely)

Organization: Development, layout, flow and design

Points not sequential – hard to follow; layout incorrect; design is incorrect or messy

Points are sequential; layout is adequate; design and flow are adequate (meet but can be improved)

Points are well developed, layout is clean, and design is professional

Literacy: Paragraphs, grammar, punctuation, & word choice; Introduction & conclusion

Several misspellings; grammar and/or word usage errors are disruptive; does not include introduction or conclusion

Minor errors in spelling, grammar, punctuation, or word choice; introduction and/or conclusion are included but are not well-structured

Not more than 1 or 2 errors overall; effective introduction and conclusion

 

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Test Hypothesis, Protocol & Summary

Context: Your organization is evaluating the quality of its call center operations. One of the most important metrics in a call center is Time in Queue (TiQ), which is the time a customer has to wait before he/she is serviced by a Customer Service Representative (CSR). If a customer has to wait for too long, he/she is more likely to get discouraged and hang up. Furthermore, customers who have to wait too long in the queue typically report a negative overall experience with the call. You’ve conducted an exhaustive literature review and found that the average TiQ in your industry is 2.5 minutes (150 seconds).

Another important metric is Service Time (ST), also known as Handle Time, which is the time a CSR spends servicing the customer. CSR’s with more experience and deeper knowledge tend to resolve customer calls faster. Companies can improve average ST by providing more training to their CSR’s or even by channeling calls according to area of expertise. Last month your company had an average ST of approximately 3.5 minutes (210 seconds). In an effort to improve this metric, the company has implemented a new protocol that channels calls to CSR’s based on area of expertise. The new protocol (PE) is being tested side-by-side with the traditional (PT) protocol.


Instructions:

Access the CallCenterWaitingTime.xlsx file. Each row in the database corresponds to a different call. The column variables are as follows:

  • ProtocolType: indicates protocol type, either PT or PE
  • QueueTime: Time in Queue, in seconds
  • ServiceTime: Service Time, in seconds
  • Perform a test of hypothesis to determine whether the average TiQ is lower than the industry standard of 2.5 minutes (150 seconds). Use a significance level of α=0.05.
  • Evaluate if the company should allocate more resources to improve its average TiQ.
  • Perform a test of hypothesis to determine whether the average ST with service protocol PE is lower than with the PT protocol. Use a significance level of α=0.05.
  • Assess if the new protocol served its purpose. (Hint: this should be a test of means for 2 independent groups.)
  • Submit your calculations and a 175-word summary of your conclusions.

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Complete the following exercises located at the end of each chapter and put them into a Word document to be submitted as directed by the instructor.

Complete the following exercises located at the end of each chapter and put them into a Word document to be submitted as directed by the instructor.

Show all relevant work; use the equation editor in Microsoft Word when necessary.

1. Chapter 5, numbers 5.11, 5.13, 5.15, and 5.18

2. Chapter 8, numbers 8.10, 8.14, 8.16, 8.19, and 8.21

 

5.11 Scores on the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS) approximate a normal curve with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. What proportion of IQ scores are

(a) above Kristen’s 125?

(b) below 82?

(c) within 9 points of the mean?

(d) more than 40 points from the mean?

 

5.13 IQ scores on the WAIS test approximate a normal curve with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. What IQ score is identified with

(a) the upper 2 percent, that is, 2 percent to the right (and 98 percent to the left)?

(b) the lower 10 percent?

(c) the upper 60 percent?

(d) the middle 95 percent? [Remember, the middle 95 percent straddles the line perpendicular to the mean (or the 50th percentile), with half of 95 percent, or 47.5 percent, above this line and the remaining 47.5 percent below this line.]

(e) the middle 99 percent?

 

IMPORTANT NOTE: When doing Questions 5.15 and 5.16, remember to decide first whether a proportion or a score is to be found.

*5. 15 An investigator polls common cold sufferers, asking them to estimate the number of hours of physical discomfort caused by their most recent colds. Assume that their estimates approximate a normal curve with a mean of 83 hours and a standard deviation of 20 hours.

(a) What is the estimated number of hours for the shortest-suffering 5 percent?

(b) What proportion of sufferers estimate that their colds lasted longer than 48 hours?

(c) What proportion suffered for fewer than 61 hours?

(d) What is the estimated number of hours suffered by the extreme 1 percent either above or below the mean?

(e) What proportion suffered for between 1 and 3 days, that is, between 24 and 72 hours?

(f) What is the estimated number of hours suffered by the middle 95 percent? [See the comment about “middle 95 percent” in Question 5.13(d).]

(g) What proportion suffered for between 2 and 4 days?

(h) A medical researcher wishes to concentrate on the 20 percent who suffered the most. She will work only with those who estimate that they suffered for more than ——— hours.

(i) Another researcher wishes to compare those who suffered least with those who suffered most. If each group is to consist of only the extreme 3 percent, the mild group will consist of those who suffered for fewer than _____ hours, and the severe group will consist of those who suffered for more than _____ hours.

(j) Another survey found that people with colds who took daily doses of vitamin C suffered, on the average, for 61 hours. What proportion of the original survey (with a mean of 83 hours and a standard deviation of 20 hours) suffered for more than 61 hours?

(k) What proportion of the original survey suffered for exactly 61 hours? (Be careful!)

 

*5.18 The body mass index (BMI) measures body size in people by dividing weight (in pounds) by the square of height (in inches) and then multiplying by a factor of 703. A BMI less than 18.5 is defined as underweight; between 18.5 to 24.9 is normal; between 25 and 29.9 is overweight; and 30 or more is obese. It is well established that Americans have become heavier during the last half century. Assume that the positively skewed distribution of BMIs for adult American males has a mean of 28 with a standard deviation of 4.

(a) Would the median BMI score exceed, equal, or be exceeded by the mean BMI score of 28?

(b) What z score defines overweight

(c) What z score defines obese

 

8.10 Television stations sometimes solicit feedback volunteered by viewers about a tele-vised event. Following a televised debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election campaign, a TV station conducted a telephone poll to determine the “winner.” Callers were given two phone numbers, one for Obama and the other for Romney, to register their opinions automatically.

(a) Comment on whether or not this was a random sample.

(b) How might this poll have been improved?

 

*8.14 The probability of a boy being born equals .50, or 1/2, as does the probability of a girl being born. For a randomly selected family with two children, what’s the probability of

(a) two boys, that is, a boy and a boy? (Reminder: Before using either the addition or multiplication rule, satisfy yourself that the various events are either mutually exclu-sive or independent, respectively.)

(b) two girls?

(c) either two boys or two girls?

 

8.16 A traditional test for extrasensory perception (ESP) involves a set of playing cards, each of which shows a different symbol (circle, square, cross, star, or wavy lines). If C represents a correct guess and I an incorrect guess, what is the probability of

(a) C?

(b) CI (in that order) for two guesses?

(c) CCC for three guesses?

(d) III for three guesses?

 

8.19 A sensor is used to monitor the performance of a nuclear reactor. The sensor accurately reflects the state of the reactor with a probability of .97. But with a probability of .02, it gives a false alarm (by reporting excessive radiation even though the reactor is performing normally), and with a probability of .01, it misses excessive radiation (by failing to report excessive radiation even though the reactor is performing abnormally).

(a) What is the probability that a sensor will give an incorrect report, that is, either a false alarm or a miss?

(b) To reduce costly shutdowns caused by false alarms, management introduces a second completely independent sensor, and the reactor is shut down only when both sensors report excessive radiation. (According to this perspective, solitary reports of excessive radiation should be viewed as false alarms and ignored, since both sensors provide accurate information much of the time.) What is the new probability that the reactor will be shut down because of simultaneous false alarms by both the first and second sensors?

(c) Being more concerned about failures to detect excessive radiation, someone who lives near the nuclear reactor proposes an entirely different strategy: Shut down the reactor whenever either sensor reports excessive radiation. (According to this point of view, even a solitary report of excessive radiation should trigger a shutdown, since a failure to detect excessive radiation is potentially catastrophic.) If this policy were adopted, what is the new probability that excessive radiation will be missed simultaneously by both the first and second sensors?

 

*8.21 Assume that the probability of breast cancer equals .01 for women in the 50–59 age group. Furthermore, if a woman does have breast cancer, the probability of a true positive mammogram (correct detection of breast cancer) equals .80 and the probability of a false negative mammogram (a miss) equals .20. On the other hand, if a woman does not have breast cancer, the probability of a true negative mammogram (correct nondetection) equals .90 and the probability of a false positive mammogram (a false alarm) equals .10. (Hint: Use a frequency analysis to answer questions. To facilitate checking your answers with those in the book, begin with a total of 1,000 women, then branch into the number of women who do or do not have breast cancer, and finally, under each of these numbers, branch into the number of women with positive and negative mammograms.)

(a) What is the probability that a randomly selected woman will have a positive mammogram?

(b) What is the probability of having breast cancer, given a positive mammogram?

(c) What is the probability of not having breast cancer, given a negative mammogram?

 

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Health Maintenance Services of Georgia reports

45. An auditor for Health Maintenance Services of Georgia reports 40% of policyholders 55 years or older submit a claim during the year. Fifteen policyholders are randomly selected for company records. a. How many of the policyholders would you expect to have filed a claim within the last year? b. What is the probability that 10 of the selected policyholders submitted a claim last year? c. What is the probability that 10 or more of the selected policyholders submitted a claim last year? d. What is the probability that more than 10 of the selected policyholders submitted a claim last year?

71. Refer to the Baseball 2016 data. Compute the mean number of home runs per game. To do this, first find the mean number of home runs per team for 2016. Next, divide this value by 162 (a season comprises 162 games). Then multiply by 2 because there are two teams in each game. Use the Poisson distribution to estimate the number of home runs that will be hit in a game. Find the probability that: a. There are no home runs in a game. b. There are two home runs in a game. c. There are at least four home runs in a game.

53. Management at Gordon Electronics is considering adopting a bonus system to increase production. One suggestion is to pay a bonus on the highest 5% of production based on past experience. Past records indicate weekly production follows the normal distribution. The mean of this distribution is 4,000 units per week and the standard deviation is 60 units per week. If the bonus is paid on the upper 5% of production, the bonus will be paid on how many units or more?

55. Best Electronics Inc. offers a “no hassle” returns policy. The daily number of customers returning items follows the normal distribution. The mean number of customers returning items is 10.3 per day and the standard deviation is 2.25 per day .a. For any day, what is the probability that eight or fewer customers returned items?  b. For any day, what is the probability that the number of customers returning items is between 12 and 14? c. Is there any chance of a day with no customer returns?

76. Refer to the Lincolnville School District bus data a. Refer to the maintenance cost variable. The mean maintenance cost for last year is $4,552 with a standard deviation of $2332. Estimate the number of buses with a maintenance cost of more than $6,000. Compare that with the actual number. Create a frequency distribution of maintenance cost. Is the distribution normally distributed. Refer to the variable on the number of miles driven since the last maintenance. The mean is 11,121 and the standard deviation is 617 miles. Estimate the number of buses traveling more than 11,500 miles since the last maintenance. Compare that number with the actual value. Create a frequency distribution of miles since maintenance cost. Is the distribution normally distributed?

A. Century National Bank Refer to the Century National Bank data. Is it reasonable that the distribution of checking account balances approximates a normal probability distribution? Determine the mean and the standard deviation for the sample of 60 customers. Compare the actual distribution with the theoretical distribution. Cite some specific examples and comment on your findings. Divide the account balances into three groups, of about 20 each, with the smallest third of the balances in the first group, the middle third in the second group, and those with the largest balances in the third group. Next, develop a table that shows the number in each of the categories of the account balances by branch. Does it ap-pear that account balances are related to the branch? Cite some examples and comment on your findings.

Call Center Timing

Call Center Timing

ProtocolTypeQueueTimeServiceTime
PE43976
PE15133
PE5735
PE71539
PE4541
PE9743
PE23943
PE3348
PE3148
PE29949
PE2750
PE18950
PE5151
PE7152
PE5756
PE14957
PE80961
PE12161
PE6563
PE5965
PE2968
PE4368
PE9171
PE81172
PE9572
PE6774
PE14375
PE8575
PE17375
PE7775
PE2576
PE7577
PE4179
PE52979
PE4780
PE14787
PE24790
PE189104
PE89106
PE323110
PE265121
PE141129
PE167131
PE107144
PE261157
PE63159
PE37167
PE367167
PE91168
PE193172
PE133195
PE31204
PE203210
PE261211
PE705246
PE75255
PE31260
PE177854
PE193899
PE93905
PE53942
PE91225
PE103239
PE219243
PE179268
PE153299
PE57319
PE571321
PE71388
PE89408
PE89577
PT8129
PT6586
PT14786
PT3388
PT10390
PT2190
PT3590
PT6390
PT16392
PT8596
PT6997
PT37799
PT43102
PT41104
PT83108
PT367109
PT45113
PT49122
PT155122
PT45124
PT571130
PT83139
PT55150
PT705156
PT101157
PT277166
PT43172
PT29172
PT97173
PT43187
PT103187
PT65193
PT627197
PT121215
PT131229
PT29248
PT91267
PT219283
PT167323
PT417493
PT141539
PT187551
PT651567
PT203633
PT73775
PT7051048
PE47231
PE29133
PE4334
PE12135
PE17937
PE12938
PE14143
PE7345
PE9747
PE14152
PE6354
PE5156
PE10764
PE9965
PE4367
PE12369
PE31570
PE12976
PE7177
PE3378
PE17980
PE13183
PE10592
PE9594
PE131110
PE143110
PE135112
PE75119
PE127129
PE277140
PE235188
PE97204
PE31206
PE119207
PE219239
PE47214
PE67243
PE65387
PT11931
PT10785
PT12989
PT6991
PT161106
PT27111
PT73119
PT75124
PT69125
PT105132
PT57159
PT63166
PT41168
PT69178
PT145191
PT139215
PT51256
PT43267
PT141310
PT71327
PT159513
PT1292662
PE8333
PE8734
PE13734
PE9134
PE68134
PE2936
PE6936
PE6136
PE72536
PE14737
PE6137
PE8937
PE5138
PE2738
PE81140
PE3740
PE9941
PE5941
PE7942
PE22542
PE13342
PE4343
PE5144
PE10744
PE3744
PE14545
PE17345
PE6345
PE13945
PE3146
PE5546
PE9946
PE2947
PE10547
PE5547
PE4747
PE5747
PE19547
PE41949
PE8349
PE7149
PE6550
PE31151
PE75351
PE4551
PE15151
PE4352
PE4752
PE14352
PE71552
PE7152
PE4352
PE5553
PE5353
PE18754
PE21354
PE12355
PE26555
PE16355
PE10755
PE14156
PE6756
PE8356
PE4756
PE48756
PE4157
PE8357
PE75357
PE8157
PE76757
PE31558
PE24159
PE3959
PE8559
PE7359
PE19959
PE5360
PE7160
PE9160
PE17960
PE9360
PE4760
PE7560
PE10961
PE27361
PE3761
PE12361
PE15562
PE21163
PE4564
PE10964
PE4564
PE3365
PE6365
PE13965
PE9166
PE80966
PE14966
PE7166
PE8567
PE7167
PE3367
PE4967
PE4167
PE13568
PE2168
PE32368
PE17769
PE81169
PE7569
PE14169
PE9969
PE8370
PE13370
PE7770
PE8570
PE80970
PE3571
PE9372
PE6773
PE8373
PE7373
PE5773
PE4574
PE5574
PE6574
PE6774
PE19375
PE14975
PE3975
PE6576
PE17176
PE3376
PE17176
PE9976
PE10576
PE4177
PE9177
PE10777
PE16177
PE9377
PE8378
PE4978
PE6379
PE7179
PE20379
PE22979
PE7779
PE9780
PE30180
PE3981
PE10781
PE14581
PE3382
PE12382
PE10982
PE4983
PE24383
PE20583
PE12583
PE12784
PE18585
PE6994
PE4196
PE165102
PE321106
PE41110
PE189111
PE155114
PE45117
PE179123
PE35124
PE541126
PE57128
PE101129
PE43129
PE123132
PE75142
PE105142
PE145146
PE217152
PE157154
PE61158
PE221162
PE71172
PE123173
PE57179
PE109180
PE123189
PE37206
PE81207
PE89208
PE51216
PE129220
PE77220
PE135225
PE131231
PE27236
PE121242
PE45253
PE95253
PE89255
PE83412
PE135414
PE135799
PE809822
PE149886
PE93901
PE75209
PE55211
PE117211
PE79213
PE113224
PE149225
PE95227
PE57227
PE51241
PE115261
PE43264
PE89296
PE99297
PE105300
PE105320
PE655340
PE27344
PE79388
PE715407
PE87407
PE227474
PE157530
PE31531
PE753532
PE71584
PE237694
PE69704
PE129721
PE1452270
PT24328
PT9129
PT16130
PT5330
PT6333
PT4786
PT6786
PT10786
PT18388
PT6789
PT7589
PT3590
PT35590
PT20790
PT10591
PT7591
PT18591
PT12991
PT3392
PT6192
PT8192
PT7192
PT5193
PT80993
PT12993
PT9594
PT7995
PT7395
PT3595
PT12796
PT11596
PT5196
PT9397
PT9797
PT23797
PT7798
PT3598
PT12398
PT17998
PT23999
PT6399
PT7199
PT89100
PT217100
PT91100
PT23100
PT269101
PT153102
PT263103
PT101103
PT55104
PT95104
PT205104
PT165105
PT271105
PT69106
PT81106
PT129106
PT149106
PT273107
PT225107
PT103109
PT145109
PT35109
PT97109
PT89110
PT65112
PT189114
PT51114
PT339114
PT83115
PT57115
PT99115
PT71116
PT41117
PT73117
PT67118
PT55118
PT77118
PT77119
PT59120
PT101121
PT135121
PT51122
PT247122
PT131122
PT169123
PT165123
PT63123
PT45123
PT301123
PT53124
PT105124
PT47124
PT53124
PT75124
PT153124
PT279126
PT119126
PT153126
PT27126
PT137127
PT111129
PT177129
PT125129
PT131130
PT95130
PT67131
PT261132
PT59132
PT111133
PT205133
PT139133
PT87133
PT141134
PT103134
PT209134
PT59134
PT149135
PT97135
PT67135
PT165136
PT87139
PT129139
PT57141
PT49141
PT83141
PT107142
PT59142
PT55143
PT341144
PT117146
PT59146
PT599147
PT95147
PT57148
PT65148
PT61149
PT51149
PT125149
PT117149
PT111150
PT93151
PT27151
PT47151
PT85155
PT113156
PT49158
PT49158
PT129159
PT161160
PT73161
PT121162
PT171162
PT99163
PT93164
PT135165
PT139165
PT57165
PT125167
PT87168
PT45169
PT171170
PT285171
PT175173
PT51174
PT73174
PT155174
PT95176
PT69177
PT109177
PT199178
PT105179
PT119179
PT49181
PT97181
PT57182
PT81182
PT141183
PT177185
PT31188
PT105189
PT105190
PT77191
PT617193
PT145194
PT163195
PT223197
PT105197
PT311197
PT53199
PT71199
PT51199
PT143201
PT111202
PT279203
PT161204
PT305205
PT47205
PT53205
PT81206
PT65208
PT153208
PT69209
PT161209
PT61218
PT123219
PT73220
PT69221
PT111229
PT107229
PT321234
PT89236
PT417244
PT95245
PT117245
PT69245
PT181247
PT179247
PT195251
PT93252
PT95254
PT59255
PT93257
PT225264
PT207264
PT29264
PT67264
PT725265
PT753266
PT381267
PT133271
PT95272
PT627275
PT99279
PT175279
PT97281
PT123282
PT43282
PT45282
PT725283
PT209284
PT153285
PT107287
PT83288
PT57288
PT131288
PT79289
PT121293
PT83304
PT141313
PT89314
PT65328
PT89330
PT71330
PT79346
PT125346
PT45347
PT175354
PT55356
PT105359
PT79361
PT107362
PT147367
PT29374
PT89376
PT95378
PT153389
PT681393
PT57393
PT175393
PT725407
PT77485
PT223489
PT207492
PT41492

Biblical Worldview PAPER INSTRUCTIONS

EDUC 504

Biblical Worldview PAPER INSTRUCTIONS

Rationale

The Biblical Worldview Assignment is course-embedded into every degree program in Liberty University’s School of Education (SOE). Its purpose is to carry out LU’s mission to provide an education with a solid Christian foundation and to ensure that every SOE program completer understands the implications of a biblical worldview for the field of education. While there are other assignments that require candidates to write a personal philosophy of education, that is not necessarily the intent of this particular assignment. The goal of this activity is for candidates to accomplish the following:

· Convey an understanding of what is meant by a biblical worldview.

· Support and illustrate this understanding by citing the Bible and other literature on the topic of biblical worldview.

· Apply principles of a biblical worldview to educational practice.

· Articulate key components of a Christian philosophy of education, citing from the Bible and other literature on the topic of Christian philosophy of education.

Because the SOE embeds this assignment into every degree program—i.e., bachelor, master, education specialist (Ed.S.), and doctorate (Ed.D)—it is likely that candidates who earn multiple degrees from LU’s SOE will be required to complete the assignment multiple times. Especially in the Ed.S. and Ed.D. degrees, the Biblical Worldview Assignment may be required for more than one course. Candidates who are required to complete the assignment more than once may resubmit the initial assignment but are encouraged to revise as needed. For example, expectations for undergraduate and graduate writing levels are different; therefore, the composition of the paper may need to be strengthened with the repeated submission. Also, check the assignment directions and rubric to ensure that you are meeting the present course’s specific requirements.

Mission of Liberty University: This assignment advances LU’s mission by promoting “the synthesis of academic knowledge and Christian worldview in order that there might be a maturing of spiritual, intellectual, social and physical value-driven behavior” and by encouraging “a commitment to the Christian life, one of personal integrity, sensitivity to the needs of others, social responsibility and active communication of the Christian faith, and, as it is lived out, a life that leads people to Jesus Christ as the Lord of the universe and their own personal Savior.” Click on these links to learn more about LU’s Mission Statement and LU’s Doctrinal Statement .

Mission of LU’s School of Education: This assignment advances the School of Education’s mission, which is “to develop competent professionals with a biblical worldview for Christian, public, and private schools.” Click on this link to learn more about the SOE Conceptual Framework .

Directions

Write a 4-page paper in current APA format that conveys your understanding of what is meant by a biblical worldview and a Christian philosophy of education. Also, discuss the implications of these principles in their application to educational practice. Page length requirement begins with the introductory paragraph and ends with the conclusion; it includes neither the title page nor the reference page. An abstract is not required. In addition to the Bible, cite a minimum of four references that represent the body of literature supporting and explaining biblical worldview and Christian philosophy of education. No more than 10% of the paper is to include direct quotes; therefore, you should do much more summarizing and paraphrasing than quoting. Citations are required both for direct quotes and for summarized ideas drawn from references. The format of the paper is to include the sections below with headings that follow current APA format. Click on this link to view an APA Tips document with helpful hints for writing success.

· Title Page

· Introduction

Present a strong, clear thesis statement. The focus of this paragraph is to introduce the reader to the thesis statement. The remainder of the paper should support and illustrate the main point(s) of the thesis statement.

· Biblical Worldview

Based upon your readings of the Bible and literature on the topic of biblical worldview, convey a basic understanding of the elements of a worldview that is based distinctively on a perspective of life drawn from Judeo-Christian scriptures. Do not focus on the field of education in this section. A common error is for writers to neglect the discussion of a biblical worldview by focusing too much on the field of education, which is to be addressed in subsequent sections of the paper.

· Christian Philosophy of Education

Based upon your readings of the Bible and literature on the topic of Christian philosophy of education, convey a basic understanding of the elements of an educational philosophy that is based distinctively on a perspective drawn from Judeo-Christian scriptures. Address metaphysical and axiological issues. Metaphysical issues relate to questions of meaning and purpose. Axiological issues relate to questions of values. Minimize the discussion of practical application to the field of education in this section. A common error is for writers to neglect the discussion of a Christian philosophy of education by focusing too much on the implications for educational practice, which will be addressed in the subsequent section.

· Implications for Educational Practice

Discuss the implications of a biblical worldview and Christian philosophy for practical application to the overall field of education. Ensure that you discuss these implications for the field in general, but you may also proceed to specify implications for your particular area of interest. For example, if you are preparing to serve as a content area teacher, a special education teacher, an administrator, or a school counselor, you may—after addressing implications for the overall field of education—address implications for your area of service.

· Conclusion

An effective conclusion affirms the thesis statement and leaves the reader with a clear idea of how thoughts in the paper fit together to make a specific point.

· Reference Page

Cite the Bible in the body of the manuscript, but—per APA—the Bible and other classical or holy scriptures are not to be listed on the reference page. List here at least 4 references other than the Bible. One your references is to be the course textbook. Click on this APA Tips Document for details.

Submission: Submit the document both in Blackboard and in LiveText. It will not be graded until it is submitted in both locations. In Blackboard, it will be checked by SafeAssign for plagiarism. It will be graded in LiveText using the embedded rubric there.

References and Citations: See the APA Tips Document for details on how to cite the Bible in the body of the manuscript. Below are links to sources you might find helpful as you prepare:

· Articles and Websites

· What’s a Christian Worldview? (Focus on the Family)

· Developing a Biblical Worldview (Foundations for Living)

· What Is a Christian Worldview (Israel Wayne)

· The Importance of a Christian Worldview (The Gospel Project)

· On Education (Francis Schaefer)

· Writings in Christian Education (Calvin College)

· Journals: Many journals on the topic are available via Liberty Databases.

· Christian Worldview Journal (BreakPoint: The Chuck Colson Center)

· Christian Education Journal (Biola University)

· Christian Perspectives in Education (Liberty University, School of Education)

· LU’s Jerry Falwell Library: Click this link to search Liberty Databases of academic sources. Recommended search terms: biblical Christian worldview, Christian philosophy of education.

· Bibliography: Books on Biblical Worldview and Christian Philosophy of Education

· Course Readings: Relevant readings from present and past courses may be incorporated as appropriate, e.g., textbooks and articles.

Submit this assignment by 11:59 p.m. (ET) on Sunday of Module/Week 6.

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Use business knowledge, data analytics method, and data visualization skills to analyze the sales data from a music store.

Use business knowledge, data analytics method, and data visualization skills to analyze the sales data from a music store. You can use any statistical tools you like, e.g. Excel, Python, R.

Dataset
The dataset records the sales revenue of a music store from January 1997 to June 1998. The dataset has two tables: Transactions and Demographics.

Transactions Table
Explanation of columns:
Customer ID: the unique ID of each customer.
Date of Transaction: the date that the customer purchased the album.
# of Albums: the number of albums that the customer purchased.
$ Sales Revenue: the revenue of each transaction.

Demographics Table
Explanation of columns:
Customer ID: the unique ID of each customer.
Gender: gender information of each customer.
Total Visits: the total number of visits of each customer to the music store.

Requirements:

Please be creative and provide any writeups with graphs, dashboards, mathematical analysis as you see necessary to provide as many interesting insights as you can discover.

Here’s a list of things you may consider when composing your writeup:

1. Covert the ‘Date of Transaction’ column in the Transaction table to the standard datetime format.

2. Merge two tables into one spreadsheet. (hint: v-lookup function in excel)

3. Check the distributions of each column. Clean the dataset if there is a wrong record or outlier.

4. What is the revenue trend over the months of the music store?

5. Is the music store getting enough visitors?

6. How many of the visitors are buying?

7. Are men and women different in terms of total revenue, total visits, total transactions, or the number of albums purchased?

8. Are men and women different in terms of average revenue, visits, or transactions per customer?

9. Are men and women different in terms of revenue and transactions each month?

10. The ultimate goal of the music store is to increase sales. Do you have any marketing strategy for the music store?

11. Provide the finished dataset with your analytic results as the attachment in addition to the written assignment.

Submitting requirement:

The cover page and reference page/s are not included in the above-stated page requirement. These should be in addition to page requirements.

Format in proper APA 7th Edition style.

A minimum of three outside peer-reviewed sources for your references

Examination Period Faculty of Business and Economics EXAM CODES:

Office Use Only Semester One 2019 Examination Period Faculty of Business and Economics EXAM CODES: ETC2410-ETW2410-BEX2410 TITLE OF PAPER: Introductory Econometrics – PAPER 1 EXAM DURATION: 2 hours writing time READING TIME: 10 minutes THIS PAPER IS FOR STUDENTS STUDYING AT: (tick where applicable)  Caulfield  Clayton  Parkville  Peninsula  Monash Extension  Off Campus Learning  Malaysia  Sth Africa  Other (specify) During an exam, you must not have in your possession any item/material that has not been authorised for your exam. This includes books, notes, paper, electronic device/s, mobile phone, smart watch/device, calculator, pencil case, or writing on any part of your body. Any authorised items are listed below. Items/materials on your desk, chair, in your clothing or otherwise on your person will be deemed to be in your possession. No examination materials are to be removed from the room. This includes retaining, copying, memorising or noting down content of exam material for personal use or to share with any other person by any means following your exam. Failure to comply with the above instructions, or attempting to cheat or cheating in an exam is a discipline offence under Part 7 of the Monash University (Council) Regulations, or a breach of instructions under Part 3 of the Monash University (Academic Board) Regulations. AUTHORISED MATERIALS OPEN BOOK  YES  NO CALCULATORS  YES  NO Only HP 10bII+ or Casio FX82 (any suffix) calculator permitted SPECIFICALLY PERMITTED ITEMS  YES  NO if yes, items permitted are: one A4 sheet of paper with hand written notes on both sides Candidates must complete this section if required to write answers within this paper STUDENT ID: __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ DESK NUMBER: __ __ __ __ __ INSTRUCTIONS TO STUDENTS • Answer all FOUR questions. All questions are of equal value (15 marks). This paper is worth 60 marks in total and constitutes 60% of the final assessment. • For multiple choice questions write the question number and only one letter (a), (b), (c), (d) or (e) for each question in your answer book (not on the question sheet). • When testing a hypothesis, to obtain full marks you need to specify the null and the alternative hypotheses, the test statistic and its distribution under the null, and then perform the test and state your conclusion. • If a question does not specify the level of significance of a hypothesis test explicitly, use 5%. • Statistical tables are provided after Question 4. Question 1 (15 marks) This question has 15 multiple choice questions. Make sure that you clearly specify the question number and only one letter for each multiple choice question in your answer book (not on the question sheet). 1. Consider two datasets. In dataset A, we have data on consumption expenditure, income and hours of work for every year from 2000 to 2017 for a group of individuals who were randomly selected in the year 2000. In data set B, we have data on consumption per capita, income per capita and unemployment rate for Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Thailand and Vietnam for every year from 2000 to 2017. (a) Both datasets are examples of time series data. (b) Both datasets are examples of cross-sectional data. (c) Both datasets are examples of panel data. (d) Dataset A is an example of panel data, dataset B is an example of time series data. (e) Dataset A is an example of cross-sectional data, dataset B is an example of time-series data. (1 mark) 2. Which of the following statements is NOT true? (a) Randomised controlled trials are the best means for measuring causal relationships. (b) In predictive modelling, the variables that are used as predictors need not cause the variable that they try to predict. (c) Correlation is not causation. (d) Time series observations are always i.i.d. (e) Time series data are ordered whereas cross section data are not. (1 mark) Page 2 of 15 3. Let  denote the weight of a newborn baby immediately after birth.  is a random variable with mean , i.e. () =  and variance 2 i.e.  (−)2 = 2. We denote weights of 5 newborn babies selected at random by 12 3 4 and 5, and their sample average by ̄ Which of the following statements is NOT true (a) P5 =1( − ̄) = 0 (b) P5 =1  = 5̄ (c) (̄) =  (d) ̄ =  (e) ̄ is a linear combination of 12 3 4 and 5 (1 mark) 4. Let  and  denote returns to two risky assets. We are told that  () =  () =  and  () =   () = 2 If we invest half of our savings in one of these assets and the other half in the other asset, then the variance of the return to our investment will be (a)  2 4 if  and  are uncorrelated (b)  2 2 if  and  are uncorrelated (c)  2 2 always (d) 2 always (e) (−)2+(−)2 4 if  and  are uncorrelated (1 mark) Questions 5 and 6 refer to the following p.d.f.: According to an expert, the annual growth rate of the real GDP and the inflation rate for Malaysia in 2019 are governed by the following joint probability density function: Inflation rate ↓ , GDP growth rate → 4% 5% 6% 1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 2% 0.1 0.2 0.0 3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 5. The expected growth rate of real GDP in Malaysia in 2019 according to this expert is: (a) a random variable (b) 500% because 4+5+6 3 = 5 (c) 490% because 4×03+5×05+6×02 = 49 (d) 250% because 1×02+2×03+3×03+4×02 = 25 (e) 492% because 1 4 ×{(4× 01 01+01 +5× 01 01+01 )+(4× 01 01+02 +5× 02 01+02 )+ (4× 01 01+01+01 +5× 01 01+01+01 +6× 01 01+01+01 )+ (5× 01 01+01 +6× 01 01+01 )} = 492 (1 mark) Page 3 of 15 6. Conditional on 5% GDP growth rate, the expected inflation rate in Malaysia in 2019 according to this expert is: (a) a random variable (b) 250% because 1+2+3+4 4 = 25 (c) 250% because 1×02+2×03+3×03+4×02 = 25 (d) 120% because 1×01+2×02+3×01+4×01 = 12 (e) 240% because 1× 01 05 +2× 02 05 +3× 01 05 +4× 01 05 = 24 (1 mark) Questions 7, 8 and 9 refer to the multiple regression model  = 0 + 11 + 22 + · · ·+  +   = 12      (1) which in matrix notation is y ×1 = X ×(+1) β (+1)×1 + u ×1 7.  (u | X) = 0 implies that (a) (X0u) = 0 (b) X0bu = 0 where bu is the vector of OLS residuals of regression of y on X (c)  (u | X) = 2I where I is the identity matrix of order  (d) X0X is invertible (e) Columns of X are linearly independent (1 mark) 8. Which one of the following statements is correct? (a) Xy is an  ×1 vector (b) X0X is an  ×  matrix (c) X0u = 0 (d) X0u is a ( +1)×1 vector (e) X0β is a ( +1)×1 vector (1 mark) 9. Assuming that this model satisfies all assumptions of the Classical Linear Model (CLM) and denoting the OLS estimator of β by bβ, which of the following statements is NOT correct? (a) bβ is an unbiased estimator of β (b) bβ is a consistent estimator of β (c) Conditional on X bβ is normally distributed (d) bβ is the best linear unbiased estimator of β (e) bβ is equal to β (1 mark) Page 4 of 15 10. We have chosen a random sample of 100 publicly listed companies and recorded their average share price, profits, revenues and total costs in 2017-2018 financial year. Note that profits = revenue – total cost. In a regression model with the share price as the dependent variable and a constant, profit, revenue and total cost as independent variables, the OLS estimator (a) cannot be computed because X0X matrix is not invertible (b) will be biased because share price is not normally distributed (c) will be unbiased (d) will be BLUE (e) will be unbiased but not BLUE (1 mark) Questions 11 to 13 refer to the following problem: We would like to model the relationship between the price of an apartment with its area and its number of bedrooms. We postulate the following population regression model  = 0 + 1 + 2 +  Suppose all assumptions of the Classical Linear Model applies to this model. We have collected data on price (in 1000 dollars), area (in square metres) and number of bedrooms for 120 randomly selected apartments and estimated the parameters of this models using OLS. This resulted in 31899 135 and 6237 for estimates of 0, 1 and 2 respectively. 11. Which of the following equations reports the results appropriately? (a) d = 31899+135  +6237  (b) d = 31899+135  +6237  + ̂ (c) d = 31899+135  +6237  +  (d)  = 31899+135  +6237  +  (e)  ( |  ) = 31899+135  +6237  (1 mark) 12. Which of the following statements is correct? (a)  ( |  ) = 31899+135  +6237  (b)  ( |  ) = 31899+135  +6237  +  (c)  ( |  ) = 31899+135  +6237  + ̂ (d)  ( |  ) = 0 + 1 + 2 (e)  ( |  ) = 0 + 1 + 2 +  (1 mark) 13. The null hypothesis for testing that given the area of an apartment, its number of bedrooms is not a significant predictor of its price, is: (a) 0 :  = 0 (b) 0 : ( | ) = 0 (c) 0 : b2 = 0 (d) 0 : 2 = 0 (e) 0 : b2 6= 0 (1 mark) Page 5 of 15 Questions 14 and 15 relate to the following econometric model: Some economists believe that the relationship between greenhouse gas emission and income is nonlinear. Denote a country’s emission of CO2 per capita by 2 and its GDP per capita by  and consider the following model: 2 = 0 + 1 + 2 2 +  (2) 14. The hypothesis that the relationship between 2 and  is linear versus the al- ternative that it is an inverted U shape relationship can be written as: (a) 0 : 2 = 0 against 1 : 2  0 (b) 0 : 2 = 0 against 1 : 2  0 (c) 0 : 1 = 0 against 1 : 1  0 (d) 0 : 1 = 0 against 1 : 1  0 (e) 0 : 1 = 2 = 0 against 1 : at least one of 1 or 2 not equal to zero (1 mark) 15. If we know that in the model shown in equation (2)   ( | ) = 2, but all other assumptions of the Classical Linear Model are satisfied, then (a) we can still use the OLS estimator because it is unbiased, and we can use the usual OLS standard errors to perform  tests (b) we can still use the OLS estimator because it is unbiased, but we need to use heteroskedas- ticity robust standard errors to perform  tests (c) we cannot use the OLS estimator because the OLS estimator is biased in this case (d) we can still use the OLS estimator because it is the best linear unbiased estimator in this case (e) we can still use the OLS estimator because the OLS estimator is the same as the “weighted least squares” estimator in this case (1 mark) Question 2 (15 marks) 2.a. Suppose we have a sample of  observations on a variable . Show that if we run a regression of  on a constant only, the OLS estimate of the constant will be the sample average of  (3 marks) 2.b. From the World Development Indicators database, we have extracted data on the following variables for 121 countries in 2015: Variable Definition Range UNDER5 Mortality rate in children under 5 (per 1000 live births) 2.4 – 130.9 GDPPC GDP per capita in PPP adjusted dollars (as defined in assignment 1) 626 – 80892 SANITATION People using basic sanitation services (% of population) 7 – 100 WATER People using basic drinking water services (% of population) 0 – 100 The “Range” column provides the range of these variable in our sample. Page 6 of 15 From these 121 countries, 35 are in sub-Saharan Africa. We have created a dummy variable called SUBSAHARA which is equal to 1 if the country is a sub-Saharan country and 0 otherwise. Using this data set, we have estimated the following regressions using OLS (standard errors are provided in parentheses below parameter estimates) d5 = 172 (21) +596 (38)  (3) d5 = 1590 (145) − 72 (22) log()− 06 (01)  − 02 (01)  (4) i. From the information provided, compute the average under-5 mortality rate (a) for the 35 sub-Saharan countries, (b) for the remaining 86 countries, and (c) for all 121 countries in this sample. (3 marks) ii. Explain the estimated coefficients of log() in equation (4) in a way that a person with no econometric training would understand. (2 marks) iii. Suppose we want to test the hypothesis that after controlling for log(), a 1 percentage point increase in the proportion of population with access to basic sanitation has the same effect on under-5 mortality as a 1 percentage point increase in the proportion of population with access to drinking water, against the alternative that these effects are not equal, at the 5% level of significance. Explain how we could do that. For full marks, you need to state the null, the alternative, the test statistic and its distribution under the null, any additional regressions that we may have to estimate to calculate the test statistic, and how to come up with a conclusion using this procedure. All of these need to be explained in the context of this question where appropriate. (4 marks) iv. We have added  to equation (4) and re-estimated it and obtained the following equation: d5 = 1354 (145) − 74 (22) log()− 04 (01)  − 01 (01)  +182 (58)  (5) Use this information to test the hypothesis that after controlling for GDP per capita and access to sanitation and water services, there is no difference between the mean of under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan countries and the rest of the world, against the alternative that sub-Saharan countries have a higher mean, at the 5% level of significance. Remember that you need to state all steps of hypothesis testing to obtain full marks. (3 marks) Page 7 of 15 Question 3 (15 marks) 3.a. In predictive modelling, when we want to find the best subset of  explanatory variables {1 2     } to predict a target variable  we do not use 2 to compare models. Explain why, and provide the formula of an alternative statistic (only one) that we can use for selecting the best predictive model, highlighting specifically how this statistic overcomes the deficiency of 2 for model selection. (3 marks) 3.b. We have randomly selected a sample of 249 employed men and collected the following infor- mation: Variable Definition Range Median WAGE hourly wage in dollars 7.5 – 125 30 EDUC years of education 2 – 18 12 EXPER years of experience 0 – 38 13 The “Range” and “Median” columns show the range and the median of each variable within our sample, and zero years of experience means people who have less than 6 months experience. Consider the following population regression model for the logarithm of wage given education and experience: log() = 0 + 1 ( −12)+ 2  + 3 2 +  (6) We have estimated the following regression using OLS: dlog() = 2837 (0066) + 0095 (0010) ( −12)+ 0055 (0009) − 0001 (00003) 2 (7) 2 = 0394 standard error of the regression = 0420  = 249 Note that we have subtracted 12 from years of education in order to make the results more readily interpretable. i. Interpret the estimated coefficients in this regression, including its intercept. (4 marks) ii. Can we interpret the coefficient of ( −12) as the estimate of the “return to education”, i.e. proportional increase in wage caused by an extra year of education? Explain. (2 marks) iii. In order to test the hypothesis that the errors of this model are homoskedastic against a specific alternative, we have estimated the following auxiliary regression: ̂2 = 0096 (0031) + 0004 (0006) ( −12)+ 0005 (0002)  2 = 0039 standard error of the regression = 0262  = 249 where ̂ is the estimated residual of equation (7). Use this information to perform the test at the 5% level of significance. Remember that you need to write down the null and the alternative and all steps of hypothesis testing to obtain full marks. (4 marks) iv. Suppose we are told that the conditional variance of the error in model (6) is proportional to experience, i.e.  ( | ) = 2 × . Explain how we can use this information to transform model (6) in such a way that the transformed model will have the same parameters but no heteroskedasticity. (2 marks) Page 8 of 15

 

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What is the firm’s profits at the monopoly price determined in part a

Monopoly pricing (50 points)

Milwaukee Utilities has a complete monopoly over the generation and transmission of energy.  The following information on this company is given as follows:

Demand = 500 – 6Q

Average cost = 250 – Q

Where Q is measured in megawatts and prices and costs are measured in dollars.

How much energy would be sold and at what price if

a.) The firm sets price as a profit-maximizing monopolist? Note: The marginal cost curve is twice as steep as the average cost curve.

b.) What is the firm’s profits at the monopoly price determined in part a?

c.) Now, suppose the firm adopts a two-part tariff pricing scheme for its customers such that the access fee is equal to the profit-maximizing marginal cost and the user fee is the difference between the profit maximizing monopoly price and marginal cost. Please calculate the user and access fees based on this information.

d.) Now suppose the firm practices 3rd degree price discrimination and charges the profit-maximizing price to the high reservation price customers and charges a 10 percent discount on the monopoly price to low reservation price customers. Note, low reservation price customers are those who would never pay the monopoly price. What is the price charged to the low reservation price customers? What is the profit generated by charging these profits? Are the profits greater than the profits in part ‘b’? Please explain.

e.) Now suppose the state public utility commission requires this firm to charge the competitive price, how much energy would be sold and at what price? What is the firm’s profits?

f.) Based on the profits obtained when forcing this monopoly to charge a competitive price, the regulator now requires this monopoly to set price equal to average cost (this is called second-best pricing). What is the firm’s profits when charging second-best prices?

Please show all work to receive full credit.

Section II: Game theoretic approach toward analyzing output behavior of rivals (50 points)

Firms X and Y are duopolists facing the same two strategy choices. They can either tacitly collude or they can compete in a Cournot fashion. The market demand for their product, as well as their respective cost curves are as follows:

C(qx) = C(qy) =50qi (firm X and Y’s total cost curves), where i=x or y

MC(qy) =MC(qy) = 50 (firm X and Y’s marginal cost curves)

P=500-5Q, (market demand), where Q = qx + qy .

C(q) and have the same cost structure: marginal cost and average cost both=50

a.) Calculate the respective output levels of each firm if they collude to set monopoly prices.

b.) Calculate the respective output levels of each firm if they adhere to the Cournot model.

c.) What four possible output combinations are available in this game?

d.) Derive the for possible profit outcomes for each firm that arise from producing the four possible output combinations available in this game.

e.) Use these profit outcomes to construct a 2×2 normal representative matrix for this game.

f.) Does either firm have a dominant strategy? If so, what is it?

g.) Is there a Nash equilibrium for this game? If so, what is it?

h.) Is the outcome of this game a prisoner’s dilemma? Please Explain?

Please show all work to receive full credit.

 

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quantitative questions

Show your work for quantitative questions. You can create diagrams with any means you like (with Excel, by hand, etc.), as long as they are clear and contain the required material.

Show your work for quantitative questions. You can create diagrams with any means you like (with Excel, by hand, etc.), as long as they are clear and contain the required material. Full credit is given for answers that use correct economic terminology, where appropriate.

Full credit is given for answers that use correct economic terminology, where appropriate. For the following questions, show your work for all answers.

 

1

You work for a graphics design company and have the opportunity to submit a design proposal for a news outlet’s logo re-design effort. You have a competitive advantage in designing logos using serif fonts, which are trending right now. The incumbent design company, who is your major competitor for this contract, has a competitive advantage in designing logos with sans serif fonts. The news outlet is accepting proposals and may decide the winner based on those submissions. You and your competitor know the following facts:

· If you submit a logo using a serif font and they also use a serif font, you will be offered the design contract and expect a profit of $10k from redesigning the logo (and submitting the bid). Your competitor will receive a net benefit from its team gaining more design experience, worth $1k.

 

· If you submit a logo using sans serif font and they also use a sans serif font, they will win the contract and expect a profit of $15k. You will take home a net benefit of $1k from the design experience.

· If you submit a logo using sans serif font and your competitor uses a serif font, your equally poor designs will result in neither firm being offered a contract. You both will experience a net cost from reputational impacts. Your cost will be $3k, and your competitor’s will be $5k.

· If you submit a logo using a serif font and your competitor uses a sans serif font, your equally good submissions will result in a tie. You both come out of the competition empty-handed with a net benefit of participating of $0, waiting for how the news outlet will proceed with any future evaluation of your work.

 

A. Represent this competition visually using the correct tool(s) from economic game theory.

 

B. What is the Nash Equilibrium/Equilibria set(s) of best responses in this “game”? Show how you arrived at this answer by highlighting or circling each firm’s payouts from its best responses and providing a brief explanation.

 

C. Will a Nash Equilibrium be realized if you and your competitor do not communicate before submitting your proposals? Why or why not?

 

D. Will a Nash Equilibrium be realized if you and your competitor communicate before submitting your proposals? Why or why not?

 

2

You work for a biotech company that is considering new R&D for a substance that would simultaneously consume ocean plastic, absorb greenhouse gases, and increase ocean albedo. You’re confident in your ability to develop a reasonably successful product, but you are not sure how well you can safeguard your intellectual property (IP) from rival biotech firms. You are risk-neutral. You face three alternative choices:

· Invest in the R&D and apply for a patent. In this case, you expect to spend $10m on R&D and $5m on patent expenses but obtain $60m in revenue. (Note that you will have to commit to patent application when deciding on R&D.)

· Invest in R&D and not apply for a patent. In this case, you expect to spend $10m on R&D and receive $60m in revenue. However, there is a 70% chance that some aspects of your IP will “spill over” to rival biotech companies, and you will not be able to maintain a monopoly position as the sole producer of this wonder substance. Other firms may enter, and you will lose market share resulting in a revenue loss given by L.

· Don’t invest in R&D. Incur no research costs and receive no revenue from such an endeavor.

A. Represent the key aspects of the decision you face with an appropriate decision tree.

B. If L = $5m, what alternative will you chose?

C. If L = $10m, what alternative will you chose?

D. Under what values of L would you prefer to patent your technology than operate without a patent? (Round to two decimal places.)

E. Now assume that conducting R&D reveals whether your IP will spill over to other firms. Your R&D cost is still $10m. Your understanding of the probability of an IP spill-over as of now is the same (there is a 70% chance of spill-over occurring), but R&D will reveal whether or not it will occur with certainty.

· If, after R&D, your IP is safe, you can expect the same $60m in revenue as before.

· If, after R&D, you expect your IP to spill over to other firms and you do not patent your technology, you expect to lose $10m in revenue compared to the case of your IP being safe. If you patent your tech, your patent cost will be $5m and your revenue will be $60m.

i. Represent the key aspects of the decision you face with an appropriate decision tree.

ii. Will you invest in R&D and patent right away, invest in R&D and consider patenting after conducting research, or chose not to invest in R&D? What calculations led you to this decision?

iii. Discuss how this scenario relates to the “Real Options” framework for investing under uncertainty by identifying (1) the option in this scenario and (2) how your choice of whether and when to exercise that option allows you to make the best decision.

3

You produce children’s toys and are shopping for product liability insurance. You have conducted very thorough engineering and lab tests of your toys and have calculated hazard rates from toy breakage, incidents from how children interact with them, etc. You have determined that there is a 0.02% chance of a “major” incident occurring with one of your toys in the next year, defined as an incident resulting in $1m in damages.

A. Based on these facts, what is the premium you expect to pay for actuarily fair insurance?

 

B. After shopping around, you are offered a few premiums that are higher than you expect. Insurers define “major” events the same way but disagree on the probability of one of your toys causing a major event in the next year. (They claim this probability is higher.)

 

i. Why might prospective insurers assume a higher probability of a major event?

ii. What can you do to try to resolve the difference in understanding of this probability? List and describe two.

C. If instead prospective insurers cite the same definition of a “major” event and the probability of it occurring in the next year, why might they be asking for premiums higher than the actuarily fair rate (aside from market power)? What is a solution to this issue?

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